If we open a quarrel between the past and the present, we shall find that we have lost the future. – Winston Churchill “The flash crash” on the 5th of August is likely the event during the month that most investors deem as most memorable but perhaps it is the dramatic revision to the reported number of jobs created by the US economy that will be the most important. On...
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It’s ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so – Mark Twain Perhaps the greatest challenge for investors in July was to choose the single most important news story for the month. The shooting at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania? President Biden announcing his intention to not run for reelection? The CrowdStrike sourced shut down of the internet?...
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The greater the mismatch between perception and reality the greater the opportunity – Mark H. Tekamp “AI Frenzy Propels Stocks to Monster First Half” read the headline in July 1st’s Wall Street Journal. J.P. Morgan’s Chief Global Strategist David Kelly was quoted elsewhere as believing “the outsized sway of technology giants over US stocks is likely to persist, absent a major market rout.” Outsized it certainly is as the average...
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"So extraordinary a rise in the market price of Gold in this country…pointed to something in the state of our own domestic currency…" – The Report of the 1810 House of Commons Select Committee on the High Price of Gold May’s reputation as unfriendly to stock market gains has long been noted as evidenced by the mantra to “sell in May and go away.” The wisdom of that advice, at...
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"Genius abhors consensus because when consensus is reached, thinking stops. Stop nodding your head." –Albert Einstein CNBC headlined on April 12th “Dow tumbles 475 points, S&P 500 suffers worst day since January as inflation woes erupt.” Three days later UBS advised investors to prepare not for Fed rate cuts but quite the opposite suggesting “Fed hiking rates to 6.5% is a real risk”. The financial markets had stepped into 2024...
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"There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics." Mark Twain; North American Review; 1907 S&P Dow Jones Indices, in its commentary for March 2024, headlined “Despite uncertainty surrounding potential Fed rate cuts, economic strength and diminishing recession fears led to the best Q1 U.S. market performance since 2019, with the S&P 500 up 11%.” The S&P 500 returned 3.2% for the month but the equity markets revealed...
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That’s the American Dream, Can only be seen behind closed eyes; Allowed to touch but can’t touch the prize; that’s the hook, The bait and switch of hand is no surprise – “Sleight of Hand” ; Jeremy Betts The February stock market couldn’t find its way to the front page of the March 1st edition of The Wall Street Journal having to settle for a headline on the front of...
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”There comes a time in the affairs of man when he must take the bull by the tail and face the situation.” WC Fields Providing substance to the thesis that many investment prognosticators would rather be right than rich, the financial press’s take on 2023 was surprisingly curmudgeonly. The Wall Street Journal, in its December 30 edition, headlined “What Did Wall Street Get Right About Markets This Year? Not Much”....
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